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Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Raw Sugar (SB) Breaks Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance


Tradable Patterns will take Monday off for the Good Friday/Easter holiday weekend. Have a great long weekend ahead!

Raw Sugar (SB) rebounded a massive 3.5% plus yesterday, breaking above downchannel  resistance (on the daily chart) and closing just shy of the .13 whole figure level.  The bigger picture is of SB gravitating towards triangle resistance (on the weekly chart).  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart) Tuesday after the market reopens from the US Good Friday/Easter holiday, targeting the red zone for Thursday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

Raw Sugar (ICE SB Jul19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on Arabica Coffee, WTI Crude

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


23640




Macro

Interactive Brokers - Webinar - Global X Funds - Looking Ahead with Thematic Investing


Michael Hoffman, Research Analyst, Global X Funds

Thu, Apr 25, 2019 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EDT

Electric vehicles, robots, and artificial intelligence have gone from science fiction to today’s cutting edge technologies. At the same time, consumer demands and demographic shifts are challenging existing business models. Join us for this in-depth webcast that will cover:

• How to approach thematic investing

• Which themes are poised to disrupt existing sectors

• How to construct a portfolio with thematic ideas

 

Sponsored by Global X Funds

If you can't make it, just register and we'll send you the recording.

Interactive Brokers LLC is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC

Register Here

--

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23637




Technical Analysis

Interactive Brokers - Webinar - Stock Traders Daily - How to Identify and Confirm a DOJI Pattern


Thomas H. Kee Jr., Chief Market Analyst, Stock Traders Daily

Wed, Apr 24, 2019 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM EDT

• Basis:  Technical analysis

• Theory: DOJI’s are known to represent confused markets.

• Theory: DOJIs often mark turning points – but not always.

• How to: identify them in the charts

• How to: integrate them with trading patterns.

• How to: look out for types of confirmation signals.

Sponsored by Stock Traders Daily

Can’t join us live? Register and we'll send you a recording after the webinar.

Interactive Brokers LLC is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC

Register Here

--

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23636




Macro

Global X ETFs - Cloud Computing: The Digital Infrastructure Powering Today's Businesses - By Michael Hoffmann


Not too long ago many described IT as a back-office function. Yet in today’s hypercompetitive markets, effectively leveraging technology is critical to ensuring a company’s ability to improve customer engagement and operational efficiency. As such, an ongoing wave of innovation in enterprise IT is fundamentally changing how companies manage every aspect of their business, from sales and marketing to recruitment, risk management, R&D, logistics and much more. At the crux of this disruption is cloud computing, which is among the most significant business transformations since the launch of the worldwide web and the adoption of email.

Cloud computing describes the availability of IT services (see Table 1), from basic infrastructure, such as compute and storage, to application development platforms and specific software applications, that leverage pooled resources and economies of scale. These services are often hosted remotely and accessed directly over the internet.

Before cloud computing technology became available, businesses had to manage their IT resources on-site, with local servers, networking equipment, software and people, in a manner that was very capital- and time- intensive without a high degree of scalability. Today, businesses can use public clouds, which are managed off-premises and available to multiple organizations; private clouds, which are created independently and used by a single organization; or a hybrid approach employing both these models. The continued decline of computing costs and improvements in network infrastructure have also given rise to edge computing, which still distributes IT services but pushes them closer to the end-user, on an edge-device, to minimize latency and reduce costs.

The global cloud computing market is estimated to be worth well-over $300 billion by 2022, up from about $188 billion today and growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.6%.1-3 Cloud computing has been successful in offering companies cost-effective, scalable solutions to the various needs of the IT estate, and thereby the overall business. Further, it has proven to be a critical launching pad for other emerging technologies expected to be integral to 21st century innovation, such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. And while cloud computing is primarily a business innovation, it has had massive implications for how products and services are delivered to customers, from social media and video streaming to education platforms and gaming.

To better illustrate the expected disruptive implications of cloud computing, we explore the key underlying factors driving its historical growth.

1. Attractive financial model: Users of the public cloud generally pay a recurring subscription fee based on usage, offering a more predictable, service-oriented model for consumption of IT resources. With the public cloud, companies pay substantially less up-front costs for capital investment and are free of the burdens associated with continued ownership by outsourcing the management and delivery of those services to a third party. Cloud computing therefore has offered ease of scalability and flexibility, allowing businesses to expand or contract their use of IT resources based on need. It also avoids traditionally high-switching costs associated with modifying or refreshing one’s IT infrastructure. Importantly, continued reductions in the cost of compute and storage (see figure below), as well as improvements in virtualization technology, have enhanced the benefits of economies of scale and made investment in large public clouds even more attractive.

2. Ease of management: In addition to the attractive purchasing model, cloud computing simply requires less upkeep. Continued maintenance, as well as other critical services such as colocation and security, are handled entirely by the third-party cloud computing providers. Internal IT personnel who previously spent hours adding new servers and rerouting network equipment locally now have ample free-time to focus on more growth-oriented activities, such as building better applications and optimizing them for business use, from customer facing apps to internal data management services.5 The figure below, for example, illustrates the hidden costs of hosting software on-premises relative to use of a public cloud.

3. Flexibility of use cases: Cloud computing encompasses a large market with vast subcategories. IaaS, PaaS, SaaS are distinct markets that each offer their own set of products and services. IaaS is the most straightforward, eliminating the need for compute and storage on-premises. PaaS enables software engineers to spend less time trouble shooting, and more time developing better apps. And while a select few companies have dominated IaaS and PaaS, SaaS is the easiest for new market entrants, many of which are now rushing to fulfill different business needs with function-specific software, delivered as service. Such tools can range from cloud-based enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems to customer relationship management (CRM), videoconferencing, and other collaboration services.

4. The power of the platform: Cloud companies, especially first movers, have and are expected to continue to benefit from economies of scale and network effects. More users of the public cloud create greater demand for scale. Greater scale, in turn, implies greater cost efficiencies and barriers to entry. This dynamic should continuously enhance the value of the service, especially at the IaaS level. The benefits of the network effect are, however, still applicable to SaaS companies as well. For example, consider an email security application delivered via a SaaS model. As the company acquires more users, it can gather threat intelligence data from all its customers to continuously monitor cyberattacks, update its platform, and take appropriate preventative action on behalf of any of its users.

5. Interoperability: The ability to interconnect various types of hardware and software from a variety of vendors, and in turn use the system with minimal reconfiguration or disruption has historically been among the greatest pain points for IT administrators. Data centers can employ many kinds of network protocols and proprietary hardware and software. Engineers often spent hours trying to get the different packages to all work together seamlessly and were required to essentially create custom-built IT systems. Cloud computing, however, streamlines that process entirely by delivering IT services directly over the internet without any concern for the interoperability of on-premises infrastructure. And while some organizations, particularly large multinationals, will employ private cloud approaches for mission-critical applications, it is increasingly easy for companies to employ a hybrid approach, using public cloud services in tandem with some on-premises resources for certain functions.

6. Enabling emerging technology: Cloud computing provides the scalable resources to gather, analyze and store all kinds of data used for a variety of advanced applications. Indeed, cloud computing offers the necessary infrastructure to ingest and process the big data collected from the Internet of Things, as well as the compute power needed for artificial intelligence and deep learning. Further, as more devices are connected to the internet, including advanced tools like robots and autonomous vehicles, cloud is expected to be a foundational resource for delivering IT services to those end-devices in an efficient and cost-effective manner. In the same way, consumers should increasingly engage with cloud-enabled streaming services, such as augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), gaming and social media.

Conclusion

While cloud computing is increasingly the option of choice for companies of all sizes, its adoption is still relatively early. Surveys of IT decisionmakers indicate that nine of ten companies have at least some of their applications or infrastructure in the cloud in 2019, with those remaining expected to adopt cloud services by 2021.7 The average IT environment today, however, is still majority non-cloud. This share is expected to continue shrinking in the years ahead. Just in the last two years, the average company’s cloud spending budget, including both enterprises and small businesses, jumped 36% from $1.6 million in 2016 to $2.2 million in 2018.8

Modern technology’s influence over all aspects of business operations have thrust chief information officers into boardroom conversations and cloud computing into the spotlight. Given its central role in attempting to optimize the productivity and scalability of a firm’s technology resources, cloud seems to ultimately be a foundational tool for enterprises of all sizes.

Related ETF

  • CLOUThe Global X Cloud Computing ETF seeks to invest in companies that potentially stand to benefit from increasing adoption of cloud computing services, including companies involved in software as a service (SaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), infrastructure as a service (IaaS), data center REITs, and cloud and edge computing infrastructure.

Connected Themes

  • The Internet of Things, Artificial intelligence and Big Data, Robotics & AI, Social Media

 

 

1. Gartner. “Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Public Cloud revenue to Grow 17.3% in 2019.” Sep 12, 2018.

2. Credit Suisse. “2018 Data Center Market Drivers: Enablers Boosting Enterprise Cloud Growth.” Dec 11, 2017.

3. IDC. “Cloud IT Infrastructure Revenues Surpassed Traditional IT Infrastructure Revenues for the First Time in the Third Quarter of 2018.” Jan 10, 2019.

4. Andreessen Horowitz. “Software is Eating Bio.” Nov 18, 2015.

5. The Economist Intelligence Unit. “Managing Application Development to Unlock its Full Potential.” 2018.

6. WestMonroe Partners. “Rain Down Cost Savings with Cloud-Based Business Applications.” Jun 30, 2016.

7. IDG. “2018 Cloud Computing Survey.” Aug 14, 2018.

8. Ibid.

--

Originally Posted on April 16, 2019

Seeking to provide access to high-quality and cost-efficient investment solutions, Global X is a New York-based sponsor of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  Founded in 2008, we are distinguished by our thematic growth, income, core, international access, commodities, alpha, and risk management suites of ETFs and have more than 60 funds available across U.S. and foreign exchanges. Global X is recognized as a leader in providing intelligent investment solutions for our clients.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The investable universe of companies in which the fund may invest may be limited. The companies in which the Funds invest may be subject to rapid changes in technology, intense competition, rapid obsolescence of products and services, loss of intellectual property protections, evolving industry standards and frequent new product productions, and changes in business cycles and government regulation. The risks related to investing in cloud computing companies include disruption in service caused by hardware or software failure, interruptions or delays in service by third-party data center hosting facilities and maintenance providers, security breaches involving certain private, sensitive, proprietary and confidential information managed and transmitted by cloud computing companies, and privacy concerns and laws, evolving Internet regulation and other foreign or domestic regulations that may limit or otherwise affect the operations of such companies. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from social, economic or political instability in other nations. CLOU is non-diversified.

Carefully consider the Funds’ investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses. This and other information can be found in the Funds’ summary or full prospectuses which may be obtained at www.globalxfunds.com. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Global X Management Company LLC serves as an advisor to Global X Funds. The Funds are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co. (SIDCO), which is not affiliated with Global X Management Company LLC.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Global X ETFs and is being posted with Global X ETFs permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Global X ETFs and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23634




Stocks

Interactive Advisors - The Great Biotech Massacre As The Ghost of Drug Pricing Past Returns


Strange price action Wednesday all around the market place, and very tough to understand, even for a seasoned guy like myself. Health care and small-cap stocks were rocked, with the XBI biotech index falling a stunning 4.7%. Meanwhile, the Russell fell 0.92%. The type of decline in the biotech group would have made you think the NASDAQ was down big, but it was flat on the day.

Biotech Massacre

It seems like everyone is freaking out again over drug pricing. This is at the very least a 4-year-old story, and what has changed beside nothing? Well, nothing. This is a political thing that gets thrown around every four years and draws lots of headlines, but it seems nothing changes. Remember it was in 2015 that Hillary Clinton started the great biotech sell-off when she first mentioned drug pricing.

Whether drug pricing changes actually happen is up in the air, but the fear that investors have is very much real, as demonstrated by the market’s reaction. Throw in Medicare for All talk and, well, you get the big sell-off. Let this chart below show you how much damage could be done just on worries.

Can biotech’s and healthcare stocks fall further, sure. I suspect that will settle down at some point. The chart above shows that RSI is has trended lower for a long time, and there are signs of trying to reverse that trend. As long as the XBI can hold $85, and that uptrend in the RSI remains intact, this will merely be a short-term pullback. If that trend in the RSI breaks, and XBI falls below $82, it could get gruesome.

Russell (RUT)

The Russell fell hard Wednesday, too, but it was encouraging to see it hold support at 1,565. As long as that holds, I think the Russell is ok also.

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix gave back its morning gains to finish the day down $5, not a big deal. I don’t see anything wrong with this company, and after doing some further work Wednesday, I think the second quarter may prove to be better than guidance. Netflix: Likely Sand Bagged Guidance

The chart is a mess, and I can’t make heads or tails of it anymore. For now, I will stick with my view of the stock rising to $380.

My biggest fear is that this Netflix subscriber stuff and pending “competition” narrative starts to sound like the Tesla Model 3 drama.  Because honestly, I won’t make it. I won’t be able to handle the mountains out of mole holes the media will make out of it. I can’t.

From the looks, it may be heading that way.  Let's hope for the sake of our sanity it doesn’t.

Apple

It looks like Apple broke out today. I mentioned in my ST room yesterday that it had looked as though there was bullish flag forming.

Cisco (CSCO)

Wednesday I wrote an article on why I thought Cisco might rise to price not seen in 20 years to around $62.  Cisco’s Stock May Reach Prices Not Seen In 20 Years

Citigroup (C)

Citigroup continues to rise as well and looks to be heading towards $73.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Lilly continues to struggle, and a break below $115 sends the stock back to $104.

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Originally Posted on April 17, 2019

Michael Kramer own Cisco, Apple, Netflix

Michael Kramer owns IWM Calls

Michael Kramer manages the Thematic Growth portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors, an online investing marketplace and a division of Interactive Brokers Group. He is also CEO of Mott Capital Management, a registered investment advisor.

This material is not intended as investment advice. Interactive Advisors or portfolio managers on its marketplace may hold long or short positions in the companies mentioned through stocks, options or other securities.

This material is from Interactive Advisors and is being posted with Interactive Advisors’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23633




1 2 3 4 5 2 2095

Disclosures

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