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Stocks

UK Sparks: Sports Direct Sees Profits Plunge


Sports retailer Sports Direct International saw full-year pre-tax profits plunge by 72.5% from £282m to £77.5m last year after a £85.4m hit from writing down its investment in department stores chain Debenhams.

The comparison with 2016/17 is also distorted by the inclusion in that year of one-off investment income from the sale of shares in rival JD Sports.

Underlying pre-tax profits increased by 34.5% to £152.9m and the group says underlying earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation, rose 12.2% to £306m, ahead of forecasts of £296m.

The group says this was largely as a result of “maintaining a strong trading performance” in the UK as it makes a “strategic shift” to an “elevated store and online offering”.

It also says it is starting to see the benefits of increased efficiencies in the UK and Europe.

UK sports retail revenue fell by 2% but “premium lifestyle retail revenue” increased by 42.7%, due to an increased store portfolio and online sales.

Total group revenues increased by 3.5% to £3.36bn.

The group, which has 493 UK stores, expects to open between 10-20 sports stores and between 6-12 under its Flannels brand this year.

Pre-tax profits at Unilever fell by 6.3% to €4.34bn on revenues 5% lower at €26.4bn in the first half of this year.

The group says the revenues fall was due to an 8,9% adverse currency translation effect.

Underlying sales, excluding its spreads business which is being sold, increased by 2.7%.

However, sales rose by 1.9% in the second quarter, below the forecast 2.2%, as the group was affected by a Brazilian truckers strike.

Chief executive Paul Polman said the company’s expectation for the full year is unchanged, anticipating underlying sales growth of between 3-5% range, an improvement in underlying operating margin and strong cash flow.

“We remain on track for our 2020 goals,” he added.

Power group SSE says in a first-quarter trading statement that the financial year so far has been affected by “dry, still and warm weather” and “persistently high” gas prices.

It says all this had resulted in a higher cost of energy, lower than expected output of electricity from renewable sources and lower volumes of energy consumed.

It says this negatively impacted on SSE's adjusted first-quarter operating profit by about £80m, compared with its plan, and this will “potentially impact” its full-year results.

AO World, the online electrical retailer, has issued a trading update stating that sales at its core UK business increased by 8% in the first quarter.

Chairman Richard Rose says the company is  "on track to deliver its long-term strategic plan.”

Moneysupermarket.com, the financial services price comparison website operator, saw pre-tax profits increase by 5% to £42.5m in the first half of this year on revenues 5% higher at £173.7m. It says it remains confident of delivering market expectations for the full year.

And defence contractor Babcock International has issued a first quarter trading update before its annual general meeting, stating that it now expects low single-digit underlying growth for the full year, down from a previous forecast of low mid single-digit growth.

It says this is due to a slowdown in defence and marine work.

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Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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19177




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (July 19)


MARKET

Chinese stocks extended the downtrend to the fifth day, even PBOC’s liquidity easing could not help. According to Bloomberg, China’s yuan fell to a one-year low, as the central bank showed little sign of intervening to slow the currency’s depreciation. Steel and Construction sectors led the gains, while Healthcare and Military sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 310.8bn, down 7.83% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2772.55

-0.53

129.37

-16.17

Shenzhen

9148.78

-0.51

181.55

-17.13

CSI 300

3428.34

-0.09

88.80

-14.95

ChiNext

1590.06

-1.11

67.96

-9.28

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Steel

601028

Construction

002628

Downward-leading

Healthcare

300238

Military

300045

 

NEWS

*China stocks, renminbi down as investors mull trade talks. China-focused stocks were mixed in a choppy morning session on Thursday as investors mulled comments from US President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser signalling trade talks between Washington and Beijing had stalled. (Financial Times)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19176




Macro

Yuan Continues Move Lower, BOJ Tweak All But Ignored


Morning Briefing July 19th 2018


Thursday marks a pretty vacant calendar, starting at 0830GMT in the UK with the latest retail sales data. After rises in retail sales m/m for both April and May, analysts anticipate the June m/m retail sales to decline by 0.6% and the figure excluding fuel to drop by 0.3%.

The level of US initial jobless claims, due at 1230GMT, is expected to rebound by 6,000 to 220,000 in the July 14 employment survey week after a surprise 18,000 decline to 214,000 in the previous week. Summer retooling shutdowns typically make July claims data less reliable. The level of claims was at 218,000 in the June 16 employment survey week. The four-week moving average would rise by only 500 in the coming week as that 218,000 level in the June 16 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

The Philadelphia Fed index in the US (due at the same time) is expected to rebound modestly to a reading of 22.0 in July after a sharp decline to 19.9 in June.

At 1300GMT Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will speak in New York.

The index of leading indicators (1400GMT) is forecast to rise by 0.4% in June. Positive contributions are expected from a rising stock prices and a likely rebound in factory orders. A decline in consumer expectations may provide some offset.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 19.2 points at 22773.43 - ASX 200 up 26.389 points at 6271.5 - Shanghai Comp. down 15.116 points at 2772.141 - JGB 10-Yr future up 5 ticks at 150.92, yield down 0.4bp at 0.041% - Aussie 10-Yr future down 2.5 ticks at 97.335, yield up 2.7bp at 2.662% - U.S. 10-Yr future down 4 ticks at 119.30, yield up 1.66bp at 2.8858%

US TSYS: U.S. Tsys came under pressure as the U.S. 10-Year Tsy yield broke the month to date high, with the belly of the curve experiencing some modest underperformance, while a strong Aussie labour market report also pressured the space. - T-Note futures also managed to breach their month to date low. - The Euro-dollar strip moved lower, in sympathy with Bonds, with a parallel shift observed from the red contracts out. Steepener interest was noted in the early part of the session as futures initially sold off.

JGBS: 10-Year JGB futures edged higher in the aftermath of the BOJ trimming its Rinban operations in both the 10-25 & 25+ Year buckets by Y10bn a piece, with a lack of impact noted across the curve as some expected such a move. Looking at the breakdown of the operations, the offer-to-cover ratio of the 5-10 Year sector moderated to 2.39 from 3.67, while the 10-25 Year bucket's offer-to-cover ratio ticked lower, and the the 25+ Year bucket's offer-to-cover ratio held steady.

AUSSIE BONDS: The domestic 3-/10-Year yield differential has flattened on the back of the stronger than exp. domestic labour market report (with a strong headline beat driven by full time jobs and an uptick in the participation rate noted), last dealing at 53.3bp after touching a low of 52.4bp. Outright Bond futures trade around a tick off of their lows after selling pressure gathered pace on the back of the release, following earlier weakness tracking U.S. T-Notes. - The Bill strip last trades 2-5 ticks lower, in sympathy with Bonds, after 3-Month BBSW fixed unchanged today.

STOCKS: Asia-Pacific stocks edged higher, initially buoyed by the positive lead from Wall St., before the major regional benchmarks moved away from session highs. - U.S. Tsy yields printed fresh month to date highs, although USD/JPY edged lower, capping the Nikkei 225. - The CSI 300 was supported by a softer yuan, and a report noting that the PBOC has advised banks via "window guidance" to provide medium-term lending facility (MLF) funds for primary dealers to support loan placement and bond investment, according to the 21st Century Business Herald, citing financial professionals. - The Hang Seng operates close to unchanged levels, as losses for health care and IT names pushed the index back to unchanged levels.

OIL: The major crude benchmarks consolidated Wednesday's gains overnight, despite the headline build in Wednesday's DOE crude inventory headline, as gasoline demand & a slip in refinery utilisation provided the impetus for crude to move higher in the wake of the report. - Elsewhere the latest OPEC JMMC meeting saw ministers report their intended production levels for July, as opposed to setting firm quotas.

GOLD: The yellow metal held below $1230/oz overnight, pressured by the uptick in U.S. yields.

FOREX: U.S. 10-Year yields breached their month-to-date high, adding a layer of support to the USD, limiting its losses overnight. Elsewhere the AUD was the outperformer, in the wake of a strong Aussie labour market report, with the big headline beat driven by full time jobs and a tick up in the participation rate observed. However, AUD/USD's initial resistance, the July 16 high ($0.7442), is seemingly limiting further AUD follow-through for the time being. - Cable experienced a late, limited relief rally on a report that an extension to the Article 50 deadline is being discussed in the backrooms of Brussels, as MEPs & officials from EU member states weigh up plans to avoid a cliff-edge Brexit (although the horizons touted vary). GBP/USD last $1.3080. - The CNY was on the back foot, perhaps hindered by a report noting that the PBOC has advised banks via "window guidance" to provide MLF funds for primary dealers to support loan placement and bond investment, according to the 21st Century Business Herald, citing financial professionals. - USD/JPY edged lower, but ignored the latest adjustment to the BOJ's Rinban.

Technical Analysis


 BUND: (U18) Key Resistance Continues To Cap

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.22 High July 13
*RES 2: 163.17 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 163.00 Hourly resistance July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.82

*SUP 1: 162.49 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 162.40 Low July 11
*SUP 3: 162.26 Low July 10
*SUP 4: 162.06 Low July 5    

*COMMENTARY: Yet another failure to gain topside traction is a concern for bulls. Bulls continue to look for a close above 163.22 to add support to the case for a test of the 164.19-36 region where 2018 highs and the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs are located. The 21-DMA remains initial support but bears still need a close below 162.26 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to 161.26-75.

EUROSTOXX50: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3550.21 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs
*RES 3: 3540.64 High June 15
*RES 2: 3510.37 200-DMA
*RES 1: 3502.68 55-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3485.08

*SUP 1: 3477.98 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 3466.26 High July 13 now support
*SUP 3: 3424.22 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 3418.06 Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on the dip back towards the 21-DMA Tuesday has been followed up with a close above the 55-DMA that buys bulls breathing room and sees initial focus on the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to confirm focus on 3540.03-3566.53 where the bear channel top off 2018 highs is located. Bears now need a close below 3466.26 to signal a false break and below 3418.06 to shift initial focus back to 3340.50 June lows.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19175




Technical Analysis

AUDUSD Weekly Hammer Forming Following Weekly Doji


The AUDUSD edged higher yesterday, reversing a sharp intraday drop forming a daily Hammer.  Significantly, a green weekly Hammer appears to be following last week's weekly Doji, reflecting the AUDUSD's inability to continue the weekly chart 6 month downchannel.  Interestingly, the AUDUSD is only one day's worth of volatility away from the weekly chart downchannel resistance.  Any break above the weekly chart downchannel resistance will also confirm a Double Bottom the AUDUSD is trying to form with its July low versus the May 2007 low.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

 
AUDUSD Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on AUDJPY, Soybean
 
Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


 

19174




Futures

FX Rundown


The Dollar Index traded to the highest level since June 28th but failed to hold the 95 mark. We discuss what kept today in a consolidation pattern and what to look for tonight from the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Aussie and Canadian. Tomorrow brings Philly Fed Manufacturing and weekly Jobless Claims.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This video is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19173




1 2 3 4 5 2 1315

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